On Thursday 20 February, Minister for Finance Anders Borg presented a new forecast of the outcome for the Swedish economy and the public finances. The Swedish economy will gradually return to normal after years of financial and debt crisis, according to the Ministry of Finance February forecast. The deficits will slowly return to balance and surplus. In 2018, net lending is estimated to reach over 1 per cent of GDP.
"It is now important to strengthen the buffers and again build up a surplus in public finances. A small open economy with a large financial sector should safeguard strong public finances to protect jobs and welfare when there is turbulence in the world around us," says Minister for Finance Anders Borg.
Sweden's growth is being held back by a weak international economy in the wake of the financial and debt crisis. Despite this, the labour market has developed somewhat more strongly than expected. As a result of the continued weakness of the world economy exports are only gradually recovering, while households are continuing to increase their consumption. The growth rate will strengthen and unemployment decline slightly in 2014. At the same time, there is still uncertainty about the economic outlook. The risk of weaker growth continues to dominate, according to the Ministry of Finance's new forecast.
The Budget Bill for 2014 contains forecasts for macroeconomic developments and public sector finance. The Swedish economy has clearly been affected by the global recession of recent years. Growth has slowed again and is expected to remain low this year and then gradually pick up.
About the forecasts
The Government always presents forecasts for the Swedish economy and public finances in connection with the Spring Fiscal Policy Bill in April and the Budget Bill in September. These forecasts are normally updated a few times in between.
Government forecasts contain key indicators related to the requirements on fiscal policy contained in the fiscal policy framework.