The situation regarding Sweden’s energy supply in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
On Friday, 25 February, the Government received an updated picture of the situation from the Swedish Energy Agency. At present, the assessment is that there is no acute risk of shortages or supply disruptions in the supply of electricity, gas or fuel in Sweden. Sweden’s energy supply is to a low degree directly dependent on Russian energy supplies, and reports show that energy supplies from Russia are functioning normally, which means that there are currently no indications of a rapidly approaching shortage. At the same time, it is already possible to see that the situation is affecting prices in the European energy market, and thus also Swedish consumers.
Electricity prices have been subdued in January and February compared with December 2021. Recent temperatures have been relatively normal, with high wind power production and normal water levels in Sweden’s reservoirs.
Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel prices have risen, which affects the price of electricity in countries where these fuels are used for electricity generation to a great extent. This will continue to affect electricity prices in southern Sweden. Recent electricity prices have been relatively constant, with a continued large price difference between northern (SE1 and SE2) and southern (SE3 and SE4) Sweden. In Germany and several other European countries, prices remain at a significantly higher level.
Russian exports of natural gas account for about one fifth of European gas supplies, but the figure fluctuates from day to day. The ongoing conflict risks affecting Russian gas exports to Europe. At present, however, the assessment remains that the risk is relatively small.
Sweden’s energy supply is to a low degree directly dependent on Russian gas supplies. Only two per cent of the total Swedish energy supply consists of natural gas, and an estimated half of this could currently come from Russia.
After the very high natural gas prices in December, natural gas prices fell in January and February. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an increasing trend is once again being seen.
Sweden has low direct dependence on Russian oil imports. In 2021, Russian crude oil imports accounted for about 8 per cent of total Swedish crude oil imports. It is expected that the crude oil imported from Russia could be supplied by other operators if necessary.
In the event of disruptions
If supplies of oil and natural gas from Russia are affected for any reason, it will probably have direct consequences for the Swedish natural gas supply and indirect consequences for the Swedish oil and fuel supply.
However, an interruption in Russian exports does not necessarily mean that a shortage situation will arise in Sweden; the consequences will depend, among other things, on being able to use reserves, other suppliers, weather and temperatures, and on how long the interruption lasts.
The Swedish Energy Agency will lead the work in the event of a supply crisis. The Agency is clear that the situation in Ukraine does not currently give rise to any crisis measures in Sweden.
On Monday, 28 February, Minister for Energy Khashayar Farmanbar met with EU energy ministers and discussed the situation on the energy markets in light of the crisis in Ukraine.
The assessments communicated are based on the situation as it currently stands. This may change.
This article was published in Swedish on 26 February 2022.